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- W2383075510 abstract "Objective To analyze and forecast the dynamic trend of mortality rate in Chengdu by time series. And to build a time series model and evaluate its predictive effect. Methods ACF and PACF analysis were used to identify the model. The model parameter was estimated by least square method. Statistics of Box-Ljung was used to evaluate the degree of fitness of ARIMA mode1, and the average relative errors of prediction were used as indexes to evaluate the predictive effect. Results The multiple seasonal ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model showed the average relative errors reached 8.50%. The morality rate descended gradually after 2000, and the forecast showed that the mortality rate would decrease continually in the next 2 years. Conclusion The fitness of time series analysis and forecast model is good,so it can be used to analyze the regularity of disease or death variation and forecast its future tendency." @default.
- W2383075510 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2383075510 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W2383075510 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2383075510 title "Time Series Analysis and Forecast of Mortality Rate in Chengdu" @default.
- W2383075510 hasPublicationYear "2007" @default.
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