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- W2384362274 abstract "The eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding areas,which have a character of a ladder-like topography distribution,are not only the strong signal areas for many significant w eather systems upstream,but also the difficulty of many w eather forecast models. In order to understand the prediction performance of GRAPES_Meso V3. 1 in these areas,tw o forecast outputs of GRAPES_Meso V3. 1 and V2. 5 in summer( from June to August) of 2011 are compared using statistical methods. The main conclusions are show n as follow s:( 1) Since assimilation system is upgraded,the initial fields have been greatly improved,and the mean error( ME) and root mean square error( RMSE) of various elements are reduced obviously,especially in the middleupper levels of troposphere. According to the error-decreasing amplitude,various elements are sorted from large to small as follow s: relative humidity,zonal w ind,meridional w ind,geopotential height,temperature.( 2) TS scores of the V3. 1 model,either every 6 h or 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast,are higher than that of V2. 5 model,especially 25 mm and 50 mm precipitation forecast. The missed event rate of V3. 1 model has improved significantly,and the average daily rainfall is better than that of V2. 5 model,but it can not improve the false precipitation in the w est of Yunnan.( 3) The vertical-error profiles of V3. 1 model for geopotential height, temperature,w ind and relative humidity forecast are different w ith V2. 5 model. V3. 1 model mainly improves the w hole-layer meridional w ind,zonal w ind and relative humidity,as w ell as geopotential height in middlehigh-layer troposphere and temperature below 500 hPa. It is notew orthy that the geopotential height errors of V3. 1 model are grow ing faster than that of V2. 5 model and new model forecast stronger south w ind than true w ind in low-layer troposphere.( 4) Compared forecast results in three different terrain height of V3. 1 model,it is found that,in addition to the geopotential height and temperature on 700 hPa,the differences of the same element error are small in the initial moment,but gradually expand w ith forecast length increasing. Those show that the errors of V3. 1 model are affected significantly by topography." @default.
- W2384362274 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2384362274 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2384362274 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2384362274 title "Verification for GRAPES_Meso Model in Eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Its Surroundings in Summer of 2011" @default.
- W2384362274 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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