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• W2384398450 abstract "Context. The impacts of climate change on the climate envelopes, and hence, distributions of species, are of ongoing concern for biodiversity worldwide. Knowing where climate refuge habitats will occur in the future is essential to conservation planning. The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is recognised by the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)asaspecieshighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange.However,theimpactofclimatechangeonitsdistributionis poorly understood. Aims. We aimed to predict the likely shifts in the climate envelope of the koala throughout its natural distribution under various climate change scenarios and identify potential future climate refugia. Methods.TopredictpossiblefuturekoalaclimateenvelopeswedevelopedbioclimaticmodelsusingMaxent,basedona substantial database of locality records and several climate change scenarios. Keyresults.Thepredictedcurrentkoalaclimateenvelopewasconcentratedinsouth-eastQueensland,easternNewSouth Wales and eastern Victoria, which generally showed congruency with their current known distribution. Under realistic projected future climate change, with the climate becoming increasingly drier and warmer, the models showed a significant progressive eastwardandsouthwardcontractioninthekoala’sclimate envelopelimitinQueensland,NewSouthWalesand Victoria. The models also indicated novel potentially suitable climate habitat in Tasmania and south-western Australia. Conclusions. Under a future hotter and drier climate, current koala distributions, based on their climate envelope, will likely contract eastwardsandsouthwards tomanyregionswhere koalapopulationsaredeclining duetoadditional threats of highhumanpopulationdensitiesandongoingpressuresfromhabitatloss,dogattacksandvehiclecollisions.InaridandsemiaridregionssuchastheMulgalandsofsouth-westernQueensland,climatechangeislikelytocompoundtheimpactsofhabitat loss, resulting in significant contractions in the distribution of this species. Implications.Climatechangepressureswilllikelychangepriorities forallocatingconservationeffortsformanyspecies. Conservation planning needs to identify areas that will provide climatically suitable habitat for a species in a changing climate.Inthecaseofthekoala,inlandhabitatsarelikelytobecomeclimaticallyunsuitable,increasingtheneedtoprotectand restore themoremesichabitats, whichareunderthreatfromurbanisation.National andregionalkoalaconservationpolicies need to anticipate these changes and synergistic threats. Therefore, a proactive approach to conservation planning is necessary to protect the koala and other species that depend on eucalypt forests." @default.
• W2384398450 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2384398450 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W2384398450 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2384398450 title "Modellingclimate-change-inducedshiftsinthedistribution of the koala" @default.
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