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- W2384767908 abstract "Low frequency oscillations(LFO)with periods over 10dunder intraseasonal scale are important means for extend-range forecast because of its relative longer predictability than synoptic scale perturbation with high frequency.In this paper,taking Shanghai as an example,using the daily rainfall observation in Shanghai and global NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric circulation data for the period of 1960-2010,climate intraseasonal oscillation(CISO)of heavy rainfall process(HRP)in Shanghai is firstly investigated by means of a new kind of nonlinear serial signal processing method named as EEMD(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition).And forecast effects on HRP basing on CISO are then evaluated.Finally,improvement experiments are tested by combining CISO of HRP and their relating LFO of atmospheric circulation.The results show that:(1)Positive(negative)phases of LFO with periods over 30dare consistent with active(break)periods of HRP during rainy season.While LFO with 10~30dperiods can not only modulate occurrences of HRP during the two active periods but also do contribution to severe rainfall stage during mid-summer.(2)2/3HRP occurrences during rainy season can usually be predicted basing on CISO of HRP,which may be an important clue for its extend-range forecast.(3)HRP in Shanghai usually is in close association with LFO convergences under both 10~30dand over 30dintraseasonal scale from both south and north directions.The LFO of west Pacific subtropical high and north systems exert important influences on continuous HRP lasting for more than 5d.And the forecast effects can be improved by combining CISO of HRP and their relating LFO of atmospheric circulation,which may be a kind of means with certain value in practice of extend-range forecast." @default.
- W2384767908 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2384767908 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W2384767908 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2384767908 title "Climate Intraseasonal Oscillation of Heavy Rainfall Process and Its Application in Extend-Range Forecast" @default.
- W2384767908 hasPublicationYear "2013" @default.
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