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- W2387806629 abstract "This paper proposes a Bayesian physical factor ARMA model based on the main physical factors of Manas River in Xinjiang,such as rainfall and temperature.Bayesian method is applied to updating the forecasting results of the ARMA model.By using the historical data of many years,the new model is examined.The results indicate that the determinacy coefficient of the new model increases from 0.652 to 0.983,the relative error of total runoff decreases from 0.157 to 0.018,the forecasting qualified rate increases from 77.1% to 90.9% and the peak qualified rate increases from 71.0% to 85.4%.The experiment results show that the new model is valid for updating the flood forecasting of Manas River." @default.
- W2387806629 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2387806629 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W2387806629 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2387806629 title "The Application of Bayesian Method to Forecasting Floods of Manas River" @default.
- W2387806629 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
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