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• W238942472 abstract "Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund is used as the sole conduit for transferring mineral revenues to the state budget. This paper discusses alternative fiscal rules for use in governing these transfers and focuses in particular on a proposal to use transfers in a countercyclical manner. Though this idea is an excellent one in theory it suffers in practice from the near impossibility of identifying cycles in the national economy, the national budget, or in international oil prices in a time frame that would allow such a policy to be implemented. Numerical simulations show that using the NFRK for short run countercyclical purposes will almost inevitably lead to greater rather than lesser volatility due to the inability to forecast oil prices or the business cycle with any degree of accuracy. Other proposals such as that to allow NFRK investment in domestic assets have the potential to undermine one of the most important successes of macro policy management over the past decade: insulation of the domestic economy from the overheating that can be caused by a too-rapid expansion fueled by oil revenue. Overall, numerical simulation and consideration of various scenarios, including “worst case” or what might be considered remote possibilities shows that the NFRK as currently constituted is well able to deal with any transitory shocks of the nature modeled in this exercise. Given the reality of the extreme political pressures that can arise from sharp downturns beyond those of a “normal” business cycle, it is recommended that the current flexibility built into the NFRK rule be limited both in terms of the size of the shock that would trigger using it and in terms of the length of time such additional transfers might be allowed. Both theoretical and practical considerations suggest that building countercyclical response into the fiscal code in the form of automatic stabilizers” be accomplished to the extent possible. The recommendations to generated by all of these considerations can be summed up as follows:First, implement “automatic stabilizers” to the extent possible. Second, limit the current 15% flexibility clause applying to the NFRK to make specific the size shock that would trigger its use and also to limit the length of time such additional funds could be transferred. Mineral Revenues and Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policy in Kazakhstan Steven Kyle Cornell University May 2013 I. Kazakhstan’s Economy and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix" @default.
• W238942472 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W238942472 date "2014-01-01" @default.
• W238942472 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W238942472 title "Mineral Revenues and Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policy in Kazakhstan" @default.
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• W238942472 doi "https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.180170" @default.
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