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- W2393834633 abstract "Based on the forecast dataset of 500 hPa geopotential height fields from NCEP ensemble prediction system(EPS) and the corresponding NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset,the ensemble forecasting performance in Eurasia region(EA) is compared with the performance in North America region(NA).By several forecast verification and evaluation methods,the comparisons focus on the ensemble mean forecasts and ensemble probabilistic forecasts.In general,the NCEP-EPS circulation ensemble performance in EA is nothing less than the prediction in NA.1)ACC shows that,except in winter,the ensemble mean forecasts in EA in the other three seasons are clearly superior to those in NA,and their difference of maximal lead time of useable forecasts is 0.6—1 d,with the largest difference in summer.RMSE shows that the forecast results in EA in the four seasons are better than those in NA.2)The seasonal differences of reliability of ensemble probability forecasting are not evident.For the shorter(longer) lead time,the reliability in NA(EA) is better.The identification range of synoptic events in EA is relatively smaller,but the reliability is relatively higher in the region.This conclusion is opposite in NA.3)In summer,the ensemble probability predictions in EA are clearly superior to those in NA.In autumn and winter,there are better results in NA.In spring,when the lead time is less than 5 d,the results in NA are better,but when it is more than 5 d,there is better forecasting resolution in EA." @default.
- W2393834633 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2393834633 date "2012-01-01" @default.
- W2393834633 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2393834633 title "Comparisons on forecast performance of NCEP ensemble prediction system between Eurasia and North America regions" @default.
- W2393834633 hasPublicationYear "2012" @default.
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