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• W2397711160 abstract "In election campaigns intensive media focus is often directed towards undecided voters, whom many – not least journalists, campaign activists, and the candidates themselves – believe will determine the election outcome. Of course, each of the many voters who have decided their vote well in advance of the election count as much as each of the voters making up their mind in the last moment before, or on, election day. In this sense, the election can be said to be determined at least as much by the many voters with stable party choice. Yet, if the election outcome is close, and many voters are ‘late deciders,’ last minute persuasion during the election campaign can indeed be pivotal for who wins the election. This is a point often emphasized by students of campaign dynamics: as many elections are decided at the margins, moving even few votes during the campaign can make all the difference (e.g. Hillygus and Shields, 2008: 8). Recent Danish national elections provide examples of late deciders making election night thrilling. In 2011 the center-left bloc of opposition parties had a clear six percentage lead in the opinion polls at the beginning of the three-week campaign. However, as the campaign progressed their advantage diminished and the center-left parties won the election by only 50.2 over 49.8 percent. This marked shift could possibly be explained by a strong performance by prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, leader of the major center-right party (Venstre), in the last television debates, which apparently elevated support for his party by two percentage points almost on election day, whereas the Social Democrats lost about two percentage points of their voters (Thomsen, 2011). Likewise, in 1998 the opinion polls consistently predicted that the Social Democratic-led government coalition was going to lose. Nevertheless, on election night the center-left parties surprisingly gained a majority in parliament, secured by just one seat, apparently because many voters in the very last days of the campaign decided to vote for the Social Democrats (Nielsen, 1999: 27-28; see also discussion in Elklit, 1989). Thus, in both elections a large number of late deciders appeared to support the incumbent government disproportionally in the very last days of the campaign; in the latter case it secured the governing parties another period in office, in the former the opposition parties could only just keep their edge. To further support the idea that the behavior of the late deciders can tilt the election outcome, late deciders are much more likely to switch party. For example, in the 2005 Danish national election, voters making up their minds in the last few days before the election were more than five times as likely to vote for another party than they did in the previous election as compared to voters deciding before the three-week election cam-" @default.
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• W2397711160 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W2397711160 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2397711160 title "Late Deciders: Changing Patterns in Which Voters Make Up Their Mind during Campaigns?" @default.
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