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- W2398949346 abstract "This research is an attempt to provide an integrated framework for forecasting and inventory management of short life cycle products. Short product life cycles are becoming increasingly common in several consumer and industrial goods industries. Management of the marketing and production functions for these products presents significantly different challenges than those for longer lasting products. The timing of decisions and the information available for decision making are both affected by the shortened life cycles. The literature on forecasting and inventory management does not adequately address issues relating to short life cycle products.In the first part of this research we develop growth models that can be used to obtain accurate monthly forecasts for the entire life cycle of the product. The models avoid the limiting data requirements of traditional methods. Instead, they extract relevant information from past product histories and use the information on total life cycle sales and the peak sales timing. Empirical testing, on disguised real life data from a PC Manufacturer, validates these models. Model fit and forecast comparisons with traditional approaches show that the proposed models outperform these approaches.Next, we model the inventory management problem for the short life cycle environment. The uncertainty in demand is modeled through the uncertainty in the realized values of the parameters of the forecasting model. The high cost of terminal inventory, shortages and rapidly changing procurement costs are all included in the model. Extensions to the basic model are also developed. Using optimal control theory, we derive a solution that provides valuable information on procurement cutoff time and terminal service levels. A detailed real life example explains the characteristics of the policy and its relevance in decision making.Many of the issues covered in the models were brought to our attention while implementing a forecasting model at a Personal Computer manufacturer. The benchmark monthly forecasts and the associated inventory levels provide information that can be very helpful in planning and controlling marketing, sales and production. By raising some issues this research also provides useful topics for further research in the area of management of short life cycle products." @default.
- W2398949346 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2398949346 date "1992-01-01" @default.
- W2398949346 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2398949346 title "An integrated approach to forecasting and inventory management of short life cycle products" @default.
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