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- W2406456475 abstract "Multilevel Monte Carlo can efficiently compute statistical estimates of discretized random variables, for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte Carlo. This paper considers the multilevel case when one wants to verify and evaluate a single ensemble that forms an empirical approximation to many different statistics, namely an ensemble forecast. We propose a simple algorithm that, in the univariate case, allows one to derive a statistically consistent single ensemble forecast from the hierarchy of ensembles that are formed during a multilevel Monte Carlo implementation. This ensemble forecast can then be evaluated and verified in the same way as just described; we demonstrate the case of evaluating the calibration of the forecast in this paper." @default.
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- W2406456475 date "2016-05-27" @default.
- W2406456475 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2406456475 title "On Multilevel Monte Carlo Ensemble Forecasts and Their Calibration" @default.
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