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• W2418804611 abstract "This issue opens with a Letter to the Editor by Robert Ahern and Robert Griffin of the USDA concerning a Perspective article by Cory Lindgren that appeared in the January issue.(1) They provide background information on bio-security policies and an alternative perspective. Much of this issue is devoted to a fascinating set of seven multi-disciplinary papers about risk perception and communications about climate change gathered by Nicholas Pidgeon. His editorial introducing the papers follows. Three other papers focus on several intriguing quantitative risk analysis tools. Lianfa Li et al. merge Bayesian network methods and spatial analysis to try to improve catastrophic risk predictions. Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China, the authors applied data mining to the earthquake in 2008 in Wenchuan, China as their case study, and report the ability to include more variables in the analysis with this approach. Chiming Guo et al. introduce the GTST-MLD modeling approach to identify key paths in a technological system that can be constantly monitored and adjusted. Supported by the Chinese National Science Foundation, the authors illustrate the approach with an aerospace system. Finally, Chin-Cheng Chou and colleagues present a risk assessment model for avian influenza virus (HPAIV) entrance into Taiwan through the illegal carrying of poultry products by air passengers. Despite the low probabilities of viable HPAIV entering the country predicted by the model, the authors recommend strengthened airport quarantine processes. This issue contains a review by Tony Cox of the recent book Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty (2011). The book's authors are Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo who co-founded and are the co-directors of MIT's Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL). Both the authors and the book have received much attention lately in the wake of discussion of the future path of economic development accompanying the selection of the next president of the World Bank. The authors advocate small-scale, local, empirically validated, and targeted interventions and policies, focusing on local institutions and decision making. They draw on insights from detailed fieldwork and experiments (randomized control trials) using multiple indicators of individual and community welfare of individuals. For excellent additional discussions by academic and World Bank experts placing this new approach in the context of long-standing economic development studies and policy setting, we recommend Martin Ravallion (Fighting poverty one experiment at a time: review of Poor Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 2012; 50:1); Mark R. Rosenzweig (Thinking small: review of Poor Economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 2012; 50:1); and Michael Woolcock (“Dueling Development Visions: Shaping the World Bank for the Future”, Let's Talk Development blog of the World Bank Chief Economist, April 13, 2012). An exciting aspect of the evolving area in development is its practical application of insight from risk science to improve study methods and outcomes, frame public policy questions and decisions, and communicate information, drawing on the fields of cognitive psychology, decision science and economics. Look for reviews by Tony Cox and Warner North of books on these topics later this year. We welcome letters commenting on Poor Economics and the role of risk analysis in economic development." @default.
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• W2418804611 title "From the Editors" @default.
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• W2418804611 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01831_1.x" @default.
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