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- W2419513914 abstract "To estimate the demand, implementation costs, and economic impact of Butantan’s one-dose tetravalent dengue vaccine in Brazil. We modeled the supply and demand of dengue vaccine nationally and for 6 key states using an existing strategic demand forecasting model. Input parameters on disease burden, vaccine product and pricing, production capacity, introduction strategies, and implementation costs were derived from local Brazilian stakeholders. Country-specific epidemiological data were obtained from disease reporting systems. Algorithms were developed to model 30 year dengue vaccine demand, total implementation cost, and vaccine impact using different age group introduction scenarios. Brazil’s highest dengue burden is among adults 19-46, and strategies targeting adults were modeled with the traditional child population. Initial strategies targeting all ages or ≥15 year olds exceeded capacity and were considered not feasible. The demand for all strategies was below capacity for all scenarios, but by year 2048, the demand including boosters exceeds capacity for adult scenarios except for ages 19-31 (86.73M) and 31-46 (117.06M). At $5 per dose, the average annual total cost of introduction ranged from $21.05-$322.21M in the first 10 years and $52.58-844.13M in the last 10 years. The most affordable scenario is children 1-2 years, but this scenario had little impact on the disease burden (34% reduction in last 10 years). The combination scenario (staggered vaccine introduction for 2-46 year olds for 5 years followed by 1-2 year olds) has the greatest impact with 90% and 79% reduction in cases and deaths respectively, and 84% annual treatment cost savings. Vaccinating adults followed by children yields the greatest vaccine impact. Vaccine price, introduction strategies, age, and production capacity are major drivers of the demand and require consideration when deciding vaccine introduction. Dengue vaccine has the potential to reduce cases and associated costs substantially based on various introduction scenarios." @default.
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- W2419513914 date "2015-11-01" @default.
- W2419513914 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2419513914 title "Estimating The Supply And Demand Of Butantan Dengue Vaccine In Brazil" @default.
- W2419513914 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2015.09.083" @default.
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