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- W2428315692 abstract "It is difficult to escape from the framing of the climate change debate by the IPCC; indeed, that is where we began at the start of this volume. In each of the Assessment Reports, including the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, the IPCC methodology has been a strongly ‘top–down’ process, developing a complete set of emissions scenarios, leading to a complete set of climate change scenarios and finally resulting in a range of matching impact and adaptation analyses (Fig. 15.1a). Such an approach is robust and defensible (as it needs to be) because it is underpinned by not only a thorough exploration of the socioeconomic and political forces lying behind the emissions scenarios but also by their subsequent translation into outputs from sophisticated three-dimensional atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), themselves subject to model intercomparison testing. Model runs in this framework are, however, time-consuming and expensive and the methodological flowchart is cumbersome. This is because of the need to work through each of these stages sequentially to arrive at new impacts from changed emissions scenarios. Within this context, and in beginning the discussion of a possible Fifth Assessment Report, an IPCC Expert Group (Moss et al., 2008) has proposed a so-called parallel approach whereby research into climate projections and emissions and socioeconomic scenarios are decoupled, taking place alongside one another (Fig. 15.1b)." @default.
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- W2428315692 date "2009-07-02" @default.
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- W2428315692 title "Landscape, landscape-scale processes and global environmental change: synthesis and new agendas for the twenty-first century" @default.
- W2428315692 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511627057.016" @default.
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