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- W24283222 abstract "Reliability-based design is an approach currently gaining more popularity for geotechnical engineering. Neverthless, its implementation poses several challenges, one being the additional time (usually significant) in order to perform it. An important portion of this additional time comes from the need to perform many scenarios to compute the probability of failure: a Monte Carlo analysis (the most widespread procedure) can easily take more than tens of thousands of realisations to converge. Moreover, there is a tendency to use complex models in practice (e.g. finite element analysis), producing more often prohibitive computation time. This thesis attempts to find alternative reliability methods to Monte Carlo capable of reducing the computation time for geomechanical problems in the oil and gas industry. The methodology is to evaluate several different methods (named workflows) for specific examples. The terms of the evaluations are in accuracy (defined as the closeness to the exact result obtained by a Monte Carlo analysis) and efficiency (measured in the number of geomechanical model realisations). Among the proposed workflows (i.e. methods), there is one which is capable of computing accurately and efficiently the probability of failure for all the analysis made, and others which have a potential to do so, if some improvements are performed. The worklow currently capable is First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), requiring around 30 to 100 realisations for cases with 6 and 11 random variables, respectively. The workflows with potential to be accurate and efficient are FORM and Monte Carlo applied on a response surface that updates (instead of directly using the actual complex model), which required between 10 to 30 realisations. Both represent a strong reduction versus a Monte Carlo analysis, which at took approximately 20,000 to 60,000 realisations in this study. However, for the latter workflows the accuracy on the probability of failure depends on the degree of non-linearity of the response and the target probability of failure. When the non-linearity is high and/or the target low, the updates of the response surface stops before it can accurately represent the actual response in the most probable failure region, subsequently obtaining low accuracies on the probability of failure. A connection between the updates and the prediction of the actual response surface is thought to be able to improve this workflows in order to achieve good accuracies for all the examples analysed in the study. Therefore, it is feasible with the methods proposed to compute accurately and efficiently the reliability in geotechnical engineering, but this conclusion is restricted to for the specific examples evaluated in this study. If a new type of problem is desired to be addressed, it is recommended to validate them first (by comparing their results to Monte Carlo analysis), before using them confidently in practice." @default.
- W24283222 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W24283222 date "2013-08-09" @default.
- W24283222 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W24283222 title "Performance of reliability methods in geomechanical applications" @default.
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