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• W2441212443 abstract "Abstract Viticulture is a key socio‐economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980–2005) and future (2041–2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO 2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO 2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector." @default.
• W2441212443 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2441212443 creator A5011771938 @default.
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• W2441212443 creator A5068503247 @default.
• W2441212443 creator A5074553039 @default.
• W2441212443 date "2016-09-19" @default.
• W2441212443 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W2441212443 title "Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe" @default.
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• W2441212443 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13382" @default.
• W2441212443 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27254813" @default.
• W2441212443 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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