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- W2462648488 abstract "The Government Pension Fund Global (the Fund) is an important instrument of national saving. In a national perspective, the Fund’s role is to save from the current export surplus (oil and gas) to finance future purchases of goods and services produced abroad (imports). In this perspective, exchange rate risk relates to the difference between the currency allocation in the Fund and the currency composition of future imports. Exchange rate risk amounts to deviations from international purchasing power parity (PPP) in tradable goods. A literature review suggests that the evidence for PPP in the long run is considerably stronger today than commonly thought 10-15 years ago. Also, it seems justified to expect large deviations from PPP to be significantly more short-lived than previously thought. Given the Fund’s long investment horizon and regular withdrawals through the fiscal policy guideline, exchange rate risk seems small. This warrants a change in the geographical allocation of the Fund. Today, more than half of the Fund’s capital is invested in Europe – a certain form of “home bias.” There no longer appears to be a basis for such a strong concentration of the investments. In fact, an argument can be made to invest more in countries that are farther from home, e.g. in emerging markets. ∗The views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and not necessarily the official views of the Norwegian Ministry of Finance. †Asset Management Department, Norwegian Ministry of Finance. Email: oystein.borsum@fin.dep.no" @default.
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- W2462648488 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2462648488 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2462648488 title "Exchange rate risk in the Government Pension Fund Global" @default.
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