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• W2468237928 abstract "What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalued before resumption were treated more favourably, and markets scrutinised other signals. Public debt and British Empire membership were important determinants of spreads after World War One, but not before. Can macroeconomic policymakers enhance credibility, and thus performance, by the adoption of a currency peg? The experiment is often attempted. In recent years many countries have tried to end histories of macroeconomic instability through reform programmes based on a fixed exchange rate. The variants of fixed exchange rates have ranged from conventional currency pegs to currency boards to currency unions to dollarisation, sometimes accompanied by elaborate institutional engineering meant to enhance credibility with the markets. Yet the success of these efforts has varied a great deal across countries. In particular, the Argentine peso’s diastrous collapse in 2002 after more than ten years of parity with the US dollar illustrates the difficulty nowadays of establishing credibility even through some of the ‘harder’ variants of currency peg. How should we interpret such an outcome? We think that an exploration of a large set of historical episodes could be informative. This paper aims to throw light on the relationship between exchange rate regimes and credibility by closely examining two adjacent but very different historical epochs of widespread exchange rate stabilisation, the classical pre-World War One gold standard period and the years 1925–31 of the interwar gold standard. It is now widely believed that prior to 1914, gold standard orthodoxy conferred credibility and was a sine qua non for access to global capital markets on favourable terms. A path-breaking study by Bordo and Rockoff (1996) found that adherence to gold standard rules acted as a ‘seal of approval’ for sovereign debt. Gold standard" @default.
• W2468237928 created "2016-07-22" @default.
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• W2468237928 date "2003-01-01" @default.
• W2468237928 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2468237928 title "SOVEREIGN RISK, C REDIBILITY AND T HE GOLD STANDARD: 1870-1913 V ERSUS 1 925-31*" @default.
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