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• W24707891 abstract "Business cycles -- concurrent expansions and contractions of activity across many sectors of an economy -- have been associated with significant changes in modern international politics and economics. International political economy makes significant assumptions about the cyclical nature of economic activity. Many of the central problems that IPE theorizes about are set in the context of a world with vibrant business cycles. But there are empirical and theoretical reasons to believe that the business cycle in advanced industrial economies is at the end of the 20th century being damped out, and that economic activity will fluctuate less violently in the than it did in the past. The dampening of business cycles will have important consequences and implications for practical and theoretical issues in IPE -- including (but not limited to) low inflation political economy, North-South relations, government policy, and the role of international institutions. Western political economy since the industrial revolution on aggregate has been a vibrant world of rapid growth and development, at least for countries in the industrial But it has also been a world of continuing and sometimes massive fluctuations in economic activity. Business cycles -- concurrent expansions and contractions of activity across many or most sectors of the economy -- became a taken-for-granted fact-of-life in this world. The modern social science of international political economy (IPE) shared in basic assumptions about cyclical economic activity. The problems of conflict and cooperation between states that IPE theorizes about are generally set in a world of vibrant business cycles. Hegemonic stability theory grew out of Charles Kindleberger's arguments about the requisites for provision of a market for distress goods, a lender of last resort, and other collective goods during the great depression. Regime theory developed in the context of gradually declining American power, upon which were superimposed energy price shocks which brought recession and stagflation to the core. Studies of the international politics of exchange rates generally assume that states at any given moment want to do different things with their currencies and that their preferences at least partially conflict. This paper asks the question, how would international political economy -- the reality, and the social science -- look different if business cycles were severely dampened out, if fluctuations in economic activity were subdued. The question is more than a thought experiment. There are empirical and theoretical reasons to believe that the business cycle in advanced industrial economies is being damped out and that economic activity will fluctuate less violently in the than it did in the past. Obviously, there is no way to prove the truth of this statement. What I can and try to do, is to establish the strong plausibility of the argument on theoretical grounds and with some empirical support. If it is possible (likely?) that business cycles will be subdued, it makes sense to consider consequences and implications of that scenario for international political economy. Some of those consequences and implications are novel and at odds with widely held beliefs and expectations. The first section of the paper defines what a business cycle is. The second section explores some of the roles that business cycles play, often implicitly, in modern theories of IPE. The third section takes a step back to review several major arguments about why business cycles happen. I then discuss the future of the business cycle in three steps. Step 1 looks at some peculiarities in the current cycle -- mainly, statistical indicators that don't make sense in the context of traditional arguments. Step 2 is a fictional tale focusing on what could be different in modern economies that would counteract driving forces behind business cycles. Step 3 extracts six specific things about the modern world economy that I believe contribute to the muting of the cycle, and presents arguments and evidence that each is indeed having that effect. …" @default.
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• W24707891 date "1996-10-01" @default.
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• W24707891 title "International Political Economy After the Business Cycle" @default.
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