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- W2474826471 abstract "Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, tend to predict a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. A number of recent studies have attributed this discrepancy in each hemisphere to natural variability, suggesting that the models are consistent with the observations when simulated natural variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). We find that accurately simulated Arctic sea ice retreat occurs only in simulations with too much global warming, whereas accurately simulated Antarctic sea ice expansion tends to occur in simulations with too little global warming. We show that because of this, simulations from both ensembles do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. Using two separate methods to account for biases in the level of global warming in each simulation, we find that both ensembles imply that Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time due to natural variability alone, and that Antarctic sea ice expansion as fast as observed would occur less than about 3% of the time. This suggests that there are systematic biases in current climate models in both polar regions." @default.
- W2474826471 created "2016-07-22" @default.
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- W2474826471 date "2016-06-28" @default.
- W2474826471 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2474826471 title "Can natural variability explain the discrepancy between observed and modeled sea ice trends" @default.
- W2474826471 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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