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- W2479193 abstract "Land-use decisions in forestry are increasingly difficult to make, and tools are required to assess the consequences of different options across time and space. Risk analysis, although traditionally used for other purposes, can address these issues in a transparent and quantitative way. The methodology is applied to a fictional forest enterprise in Switzerland, and the analysis is performed for ownership type, the national and the global level. Two scenarios, no wood harvest and sustainable harvest, are investigated both for normal operation and operation after a catastrophic event. For the no harvest scenario, a substitution of the production elsewhere is also investigated. Six risk variables are taken into account: loss of life, disturbance of human health, loss of ecosystem functionality, loss of soil fertility, greenhouse gas emission and financial losses. The results show that with the assumed trade-off relations, greenhouse gas emission becomes a crucial factor. For the normal operation, the total aggregated risk is lowest with the harvest scenario, whereas for the operation after catastrophe, a substitution from within Switzerland or adjacent countries is less risky because of the increased accident frequency when harvesting salvage wood. The assumptions for the raw data and the trade-off between risk variables are critical for the outcome of the analysis, and changing these input data can change the ranking of options. However, the primary benefit of using risk analysis for policy evaluation is the disclosure of risk transfers that are often not accounted for in other analysis techniques." @default.
- W2479193 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2479193 creator A5019706988 @default.
- W2479193 date "2001-01-01" @default.
- W2479193 modified "2023-10-02" @default.
- W2479193 title "Risk Analysis as a Tool for Policy Evaluation: A Multi-Level Comparison Example" @default.
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- W2479193 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2905-5_4" @default.
- W2479193 hasPublicationYear "2001" @default.
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