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- W2504614619 abstract "The Scenario Development Toolkit, Volume 3 of Customer 20/20: Breaking the Future Trap, provides a manual for scenario planners, covering the reasons for using scenarios and a method for developing them. Scenarios are the most appropriate planning tool where the likelihood of major political, societal, economic, and technical discontinuities render the future unpredictable in ways not handled well by extrapolations of past events and econometric models. Narrative scenarios give planners a vocabulary for communicating important dynamics affecting complex and uncertain futures. The report details an eight-step process for developing scenarios in a workshop setting. These steps require planners to: (1) identify a single decision or issue focus, (2) list key factors in the immediate business environment, (3) list driving trends in the macro environment, (4) analyze and prioritize key factors and driving trends, (5) identify a set of alternative scenario logics, (6), flesh out skeletal scenarios by combining logics with key factors and driving trends, (7) develop implications of each scenario, and (8) examine strategic implications of scenarios for the issue identified in step one. Each step is described in detail, together with the composition of a scenario team, logistical details of schedule and workshop setting, and the role ofmore » the workshop facilitator. This how-to manual concludes with guidelines and helpful hints for carrying out a successful scenario planning project. The toolkit is intended to be an illustrative resource for utilities interested in launching their own scenario planning process and should be used in conjunction with Volume 1: Assuring Future Customer Options Through Scenario Planning and Volume 2: Scenario Development Sourcebook.« less" @default.
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- W2504614619 date "1993-01-01" @default.
- W2504614619 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2504614619 title "Customer 20/20: Breaking the future trap. Volume 3, Scenario development toolkit: Final report" @default.
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