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- W2506400205 abstract "We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: (1) the Log Periodic Power Law Singular model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops among economic agents; and (2) a diffusion index that creates a parsimonious representation of multiple macroeconomic variables. We explicitly compare the in-sample and out-sample behaviour of our model on the housing price indices of 380 US metropolitan areas. Empirical results suggest that the model is able to forecast the end of the bubbles and to identify the variables that are highly relevant during the bubble regime." @default.
- W2506400205 created "2016-08-23" @default.
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- W2506400205 date "2016-08-01" @default.
- W2506400205 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2506400205 title "Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA" @default.
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- W2506400205 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2016.1207796" @default.
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