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- W2509777688 abstract "ABSTRACT By using data from five similar prediction market (PM) contracts on the 2008 American presidential election in two different market places targeted at investors of different nationalities, we investigate whether arbitrage opportunities across borders and market places exist in these markets. We find that arbitrage opportunities are rare and difficult to exploit. Markets in these political events seem to be fairly efficient, even if they are located in different countries, time zones and are relatively small. However, inter-market arbitrage opportunities exist, and we hypothesize that this can be explained by differences in political opinion between the US and other countries. 1 INTRODUCTION Prediction markets (PMs) are markets with trade in contracts based on the outcome of future events. 1 The emergence of prediction markets was traditionally motivated by the supposedly superior information to be gathered by these markets. For a number of reasons, American presidential elections have always been important for prediction market studies: The elections are of large public interest, the time frame is limited, new pieces of information emerge over time, and finally, a number of polls and other information sources exist, providing both reference points for comparison as well as additional information for the prediction markets. In this paper, we are particularly concerned with arbitrage and market efficiency in – and between – prediction markets based on American presidential elections. Arbitrage has been an important concept in financial markets and financial research for several decades. An arbitrage opportunity is the possibility to make a profit in a financial market without risk and" @default.
- W2509777688 created "2016-09-16" @default.
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- W2509777688 date "2012-01-01" @default.
- W2509777688 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2509777688 title "ARBITRAGE TRADE IN PREDICTION MARKETS" @default.
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