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- W2513087706 abstract "In a typical Spanish national or regional election poll, at most a couple of thousand electors are interviewed. This makes estimates of share of votes only reliable in aggregate terms. However, in multidistrict elections (as in the case of Spanish national elections) representatives are elected in subnational constituencies, where proportion estimates are untrustworthy. To bridge this gap, for the first time in the literature (as far as we know), this paper proposes some (initial exploratory) model-based approaches to solve the issue of translating poll proportions into seats in the context of the Spanish electoral system. The analyses performed in this study show that this avenue of research looks promising and that it should be further explored. The two approaches detailed in this paper substantially reduced the mean squared error (MSE) of direct forecasts, although still retaining an important part of the sampling variability." @default.
- W2513087706 created "2016-09-16" @default.
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- W2513087706 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W2513087706 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2513087706 title "ESTIMATING REPRESENTATIVES FROM ELECTION POLL PROPORTIONS: THE SPANISH CASE" @default.
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