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• W2513846329 abstract "The Markov chain technique and its mathematical model have been demonstrated over years to be a powerful tool to analyze the evolution and performance of physical systems. The degree level of abstraction for the physical system, the statistical data used in the mathematical model, the numerical approximations used to solve the equations, are only some sources of uncertainties in reliability results. By applying the sensitivity analysis, the influence of uncertainty data in system components to the overall behavior of the system reliability can be analyzed and the weak points in the model can be identified. Using the sensitivity results the confidence level of reliability results is obtained. Thus, new improvements or redesigning of the physical system can be performed. This work presents the implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for the Continuous Time, Discrete Space Markov chains (CTMC), as an alternative to the other computational expensive methods. In order to develop this procedure as an end product in reliability studies, the reliability of the physical systems is analyzed using a coupled Fault-Tree - Markov chain technique, i.e. the abstraction of the physical system is performed using as the high level interface the Fault-Tree and afterwards this one is automatically converted into a Markov chain. The resulting differential equations based on the Markov chain model are solved in order to evaluate the system reliability. Further sensitivity analyses using ASAP applied to CTMC equations are performed to study the influence of uncertainties in input data to the reliability measures and to get the confidence in the final reliability results. The methods to generate the Markov chain and the ASAP for the Markov chain equations have been implemented into the new computer code system QUEFT/MARKOMAGS/MCADJSEN for reliability and sensitivity analysis of physical systems. The validation of this code system has been carried out by using simple problems for which analytical solutions can be obtained. Typical sensitivity results show that the numerical solution using ASAP is robust, stable and accurate. The method and the code system developed during this work can be used further as an efficient and flexible tool to evaluate the sensitivities of reliability measures for any physical system analyzed using the Markov chain. Reliability and sensitivity analyses using these methods have been performed during this work for the IFMIF Accelerator System Facilities. The reliability studies using Markov chain have been concentrated around the availability of the main subsystems of this complex physical system for a typical mission time. The sensitivity studies for two typical responses using ASAP have been performed. The results given by ASAP with those obtained using the classical methods have been compared, showing a good agreement but with the advantage of computational time in the case of ASAP." @default.
• W2513846329 created "2016-09-16" @default.
• W2513846329 creator A5089002503 @default.
• W2513846329 date "2005-01-01" @default.
• W2513846329 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W2513846329 title "Adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure of markov chains with application on reliability of IFMIF accelerator-system facilities" @default.
• W2513846329 doi "https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000003291" @default.
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