FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2544271706> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2544271706 abstract "Abstract Few methods exist that put a posterior probability on the hypothesis that a thing is gone forever given its sighting history. A recently proposed Bayesian method is highly accurate but aggressive, generating many near-zero or near-one probabilities of extinction. Here I explore a Bayesian method called the agnostic equation that makes radically different assumptions and is much more conservative. The method assumes that the overall prior probability of extinction is 50% and that slices of the prior are exponentially distributed across the time series. The conditional probability of the data given survival is based on a simple, long-known combinatorial expression that captures the chance all presences would fall at random before or within the last sighting’s interval ( L ) given that they could fall anywhere. The same equation is used to compute the conditional probability given extinction at the start of each interval i , that is, the chance that all sightings would fall before or within L given that none could equal or postdate i . The conditional probability is zero for all hypothesized extinction intervals through L . Bayes’s theorem is then used to compute the posterior extinction probability. It is noted that recycling the mean posterior for a population as a prior improves the method’s accuracy. The agnostic equation differs from an earlier, related one, because it explicitly includes a term to represent the hypothesis of survival, and it therefore does not assume that the species has necessarily gone extinct within the sampling window. Simulations demonstrate that the posterior extinction probabilities are highly accurate when considered as a suite but individually indecisive, rarely approaching one. This property is advantageous whenever inferring extinction would have dangerous consequences. The agnostic method is therefore advocated in cases where conservative estimates are desired." @default.
• W2544271706 created "2016-11-04" @default.
• W2544271706 creator A5016573003 @default.
• W2544271706 date "2016-05-05" @default.
• W2544271706 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2544271706 title "On a conservative Bayesian method of inferring extinction" @default.
• W2544271706 cites W1555604223 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2007812407 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2026371909 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2036493968 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2038783300 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2073635400 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2073916749 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2073975773 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2114861765 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2116630318 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2137893488 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W2290817840 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W4229712852 @default.
• W2544271706 cites W4230796089 @default.
• W2544271706 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2016.12" @default.
• W2544271706 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
• W2544271706 type Work @default.
• W2544271706 sameAs 2544271706 @default.
• W2544271706 citedByCount "1" @default.
• W2544271706 countsByYear W25442717062020 @default.
• W2544271706 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2544271706 hasAuthorship W2544271706A5016573003 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C101991246 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C107673813 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C111472728 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C11413529 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C114614502 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C138885662 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C143724316 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C144024400 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C149923435 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C151730666 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C169733012 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C2778067643 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C2778205388 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C2780586882 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C2780813799 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C28826006 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C2908647359 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C41895202 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C43596424 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C44492722 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConcept C57830394 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C101991246 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C105795698 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C107673813 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C111472728 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C11413529 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C114614502 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C127313418 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C138885662 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C143724316 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C144024400 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C149923435 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C151730666 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C169733012 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C2778067643 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C2778205388 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C2780586882 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C2780813799 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C28826006 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C2908647359 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C33923547 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C41008148 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C41895202 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C43596424 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C44492722 @default.
• W2544271706 hasConceptScore W2544271706C57830394 @default.
• W2544271706 hasLocation W25442717061 @default.
• W2544271706 hasOpenAccess W2544271706 @default.
• W2544271706 hasPrimaryLocation W25442717061 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W107963896 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W1129222361 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W125926453 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W1427207694 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W144963292 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W1515325065 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W1578411263 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W1999608323 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2032380049 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2034895727 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2047229836 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2083989360 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2125366828 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2134147878 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2898762579 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2950658419 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W2953783102 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W3023898376 @default.
• W2544271706 hasRelatedWork W3212683152 @default.

• next