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- W2551007108 abstract "The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research reported in March, 2014 that the demographic trend in Aomori Prefecture will be a decline by about 30 percent of the current population by the year 2040. In Aomori, the reaction of the general public to the report seems to be pessimistic about the future state of the economy. My own intuitive reaction, however, seems to be encouraging. In this paper, I have estimated the economy-wide effects of a 30 percent decline in the current population of Aomori Prefecture, in the framework of a 13-sector applied general equilibrium model. In addition to the above simulation, I have also reduced the capital endowment by 30 percent, together with the reduction in the labor endowment by 30 percent. With the use of year 2000 Aomori input-output data, the major simulation results lead to the following conclusions: 1) Aomori Prefecture will have an increasingly higher relative wage rate; 2) all 13 sectors, and the agricultural sector above all, will turn out to be increasingly more capital-intensive, and the economy-wide prefectural capital-labor ratio will increase; 3) labor productivity (relative marginal product of labor) will increase with high capital-labor ratios in all sectors; and 4) per capita income will increase, although the aggregate income will decline. These simulation results also imply that the demographic outflow of population out of Aomori Prefecture will result in an increase in the per capita income of the remaining population. “Voting with your feet” may benefit not only the people leaving the prefecture, but also the people remaining here." @default.
- W2551007108 created "2016-11-30" @default.
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- W2551007108 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W2551007108 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2551007108 title "Will a Declining Population Trend in Aomori-Prefecture Worsen the Economic Welfare?" @default.
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