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- W2553016844 abstract "Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are extremely dangerous phenomena so their modeling is essential for hazard and risk purposes. Probabilistic approaches are in a pioneering phase and feature large uncertainties, from the natural variability of PDCs to the main sources of epistemic uncertainty. This chapter quantifies these uncertainties by using the Energy Cone Model (ECM) in a Monte Carlo scheme applied to Mount Vesuvius. Structural uncertainty is quantified by comparing the best ECM outputs against real data that, in our case, are the PDC deposits preserved from past eruptions. The results are visualized in two different ways: plots of ECDFs for invaded area and maximum runout; and conditional-probability maps of PDC arrival over the surroundings of Mount Vesuvius. The quantification of aleatory uncertainty is provided by different percentiles in the model output variable. Epistemic uncertainty is measured by the range in model outputs for any given percentile." @default.
- W2553016844 created "2016-11-30" @default.
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- W2553016844 date "2016-11-19" @default.
- W2553016844 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
- W2553016844 title "Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model" @default.
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- W2553016844 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119028116.ch9" @default.
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