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• W2553500966 abstract "Abstract Underground gas storages (UGS) have been built around the world. Several UGS are transformed from depleted gas reservoirs near Beijing. UGS wells always endure complex working load, having high possibility of failure. Besides, repetitive injection/production circles induce dramatic periodic changes of pore pressure and wellbore stresses, meaning formation breakdown can be triggered. On account of these facts, it remains necessary to verify whether we can produce or inject gas as planned in UGS. A probabilistic model based on stress-strength interference theory is set up to evaluate the reliability of the underground system, i.e. wellbore (tubing, casing and cement sheath) and formation. Firstly the strength and stress functions are established with material parameters and in situ stresses for these four parts. The parameters and forces are random variables in nature so all the strength and stress are random variables as well. Special attention is paid to the effect of erosion. Then the operation reliability of each part is the probability that strength is larger than stress, obtained using Monte-Carlo method. The total operation reliability of underground system is defined as the weighted average of the reliabilities of the four parts. With productivity formula and wellbore flow equations embed, this probabilistic model is able to give the reliability (probability) of the underground system accomplishing the task of injecting/producing scheduled amount of gas into/from the formation within scheduled days. Note that the everyday change of pore pressure is considered in order to monitor the change of operation reliability with time. Several validation cases including injection and production are given and this model is able to give the operation reliability. It can help to clarify the potential problems such as casing collapse and sand production so that advance workover or adjustment can be performed. It is concluded that the probabilistic model raised in this paper is not only reasonable in theory but also cogent in practice. This is the first time that stress-strength interference theory is employed to evaluate the reliability of the underground system in UGS. It is proven this model is valid and tress-strength interference theory has the potential to be applied in other reliability estimations of petroleum equipment and structures." @default.
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• W2553500966 date "2016-11-12" @default.
• W2553500966 modified "2023-09-30" @default.
• W2553500966 title "A Probabilistic Model to Evaluate the Operation Reliability of the Underground System in Underground Gas Storage Transformed from Depleted Gas Reservoir" @default.
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• W2553500966 doi "https://doi.org/10.2523/iptc-18664-ms" @default.
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