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- W2553721990 abstract "This paper sets out some procedure allowing to deriving new information from the BusinessTendency Surveys. Precisely, the volatility of respondents’ opinions will be computed that can beinterpreted as a measure of radical (or true) uncertainty. This measure is strongly recommended bythe present economic crisis originated by financial markets that the dominating idea of theimpossibility of measuring and hence monitoring radical uncertainty has contributed to consign toan unconstrained and destabilizing speculation. Moreover, some indicators of the persistence ofeach modality of answer are proposed, as well as a correction of the usual percent of the modalitiesof survey answers that attributes a higher weight to the answers that do not change in successivesurvey periods. This correction is mainly suggested by the fact that the degree of persistence ofrespondents’ opinions is an important sign of entrepreneurs and firms’ behaviour and decisionmaking.The modified percents of the modalities of answers are confronted to the usual ones, andsome econometric estimations are provided. The applications use data of the Italian and SouthAfrican business tendency surveys on a number of variables. The resulting information andelaborations seem to suggest some critical consideration on the content of the harmonized EUsurveys, mainly with reference to the reliability of the confidence indicators and the disregard of thevolatility of answers with its attitude to provide a meaningful indicator of radical uncertainty" @default.
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- W2553721990 date "2008-08-01" @default.
- W2553721990 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2553721990 title "Some new indicators and procedure to get additional information from the Business Tendency Surveys" @default.
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