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• W2555103202 abstract "The Inforum international system connects multisectoral macroeconomic models of twelve major industrial countries via a model of bilateral trade flows at the level of 120 products. For this paper, the historical data and the forecasts to 2010 for seven of the countries - Italy, France, Spain, Germany, USA, Japan, and China - have been aggregated to 34 fairly comparable industries. The shifts in the industrial structure of employment between 1980 and 1995 are compared both among the countries and with the further shifts expected between 1995 and 2010. The countries are becoming more similar in that the share of agriculture in all of them is diminishing. In the structure of non-agricultural employment, however, they appear to be diverging. After pointing out a low-tech drift in the structure of Italian employment and a simultaneous drop in Italy's investment/GDP ratio, the paper asks: To what extent could Italy influence its industrial structure by increasing investment? After a condensed description of the multisectoral macroeconomic model and bilateral trade model used to answer this question, the results are presented. The experiment was successful in increasing exports and augmenting the shares of industries producing investment goods. The employment shares of Office machinery and Chemicals, however, were not increased. How have Italian employment patterns -- the shares of employment in different industries -- changed since 1980? Has there been evidence of convergence or of specialization in these patterns? How are they likely to have changed by 2010? Can a program of investment change the outcome? This paper looks at these questions with the aid of the Inforum international system of interindustry models. This system connects dynamic multisectoral models of twelve countries through a model of bilateral trade among these countries and two catch-all regions. The models have different sectoring systems, but for this paper we have aggregated the historical and forecasted employment of seven of the countries to thirty-four fairly comparable sectors. The seven countries are Italy, Germany, France, Spain, USA, Japan, and China. (The thirty-four sectors are based on the Italian sectoring plan, and comparability is naturally greatest among the four European countries. Comparability for the USA, Japan, and China diminishes in that order, but should be fairly close in the industrial sectors.) Section 1 looks into the question of similarity of structure and convergence or divergence in the broadest possible terms. With each country described by a vector of the shares of employment, we calculate the between each pair of countries in each of three years, 1980, 1995, and 2010. We look at the distance both with and without agriculture. Section 2 examines the shifts in employment patterns in the seven countries both in the past and also as projected in the base case forecast of the models." @default.
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• W2555103202 date "2010-01-01" @default.
• W2555103202 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2555103202 title "The Changing Structure of Employment in Italy 1980-2010: Can Investment Affect the Outcome?" @default.
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