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- W2558906434 abstract "Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. Th e recently fi nished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Eff ects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the eff ects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two diff erent policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. Th is paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fl eet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. Th e fi rst part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. Th e second part describes briefl y some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. Th e main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more eff ective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy." @default.
- W2558906434 created "2016-12-08" @default.
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- W2558906434 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W2558906434 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2558906434 title "Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios" @default.
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