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• W2562921544 abstract "Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected." @default.
• W2562921544 created "2017-01-06" @default.
• W2562921544 creator A5084804121 @default.
• W2562921544 date "2017-02-01" @default.
• W2562921544 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W2562921544 title "How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation" @default.
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• W2562921544 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.095" @default.
• W2562921544 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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