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• W2566028022 abstract "Several factors contribute to or inhibit the contagiousness of conflict and irregular warfare, whether conducted at the interstate, extrastate, or intrastate level Five broad drivers of the diffusion of conflict are (1) weak states, (2) anticipated power shifts, and domestic, (3) unstable and poorly controlled border regions, (4) large refugee flows, and (5) the religiously-based non-state militant campaign against the state as an organizing principle of world politics. These factors are both endogenous and exogenous to particular states and societies, and must be considered alongside the standard factors considered in relations literature to be the basis of dangerous state dyads: geographic contiguity, absence of alliances, absence of an advanced economy, absence of a democratic polity, and absence of a regionally preponderant power. Two case studies illustrate this argument: the rise of Islamic State, and the awareness of the causes of contagion in conflict implicit in Israeli security policy. ********** As E.E. Schattschneider long ago argued in his landmark study of American politics, control over the scope of participation is at the very core of strategies of political conflict. The outcome of all conflict is determined by the scope of its contagion... every change in the number of participants, every increase or reduction in the number of participants, affects the result... [Therefore,] the most important strategy of politics is concerned with the scope of conflict... So great is the change in the nature of any conflict likely to be as a consequence of... widening involvement... that the original participants are apt to lose control of the conflict altogether. (1) Schattschneider was talking about domestic politics in a democracy, the United States, but the fundamental argument applies equally to less democratic polities and to the spread of conflict in systems such as the Middle East, sub' Saharan Africa, or South America. Indeed, the clean distinction between domestic and international politics, between endogenous and exogenous sources of change and instability, is something that can no longer be maintained in most considerations of the interrelatedness of subnational, national, and (sometimes) global sources of political conflict. Increasing attention has been paid to conflict systems as the relevant level of analysis for explaining such phenomena as civil war, contagious militant violence, and other forms of instability. At the state level, attention has been focused on regional security complexes, groups of states whose primary security concerns link together sufficiently closely that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another. (2) However, the spread of conflict cannot be viewed only from the state level. Employing a more comprehensive perspective, regional conflict have been defined as situations where neighboring countries experience internal or interstate conflicts, with significant links between the These links may be so substantial that changes in conflict dynamics or the resolution of one conflict will have an effect on neighboring conflicts. (3) In the process they may generate massive refugee flows, sources of insecurity in themselves. Myron Weiner has referred to such complexes as, simply, bad neighborhoods. (4) Clearly, conflict mechanisms must be understood at the level of substate and nonstate, as well as state, actors. One of the phenomena we need to examine is the diffusion of internal wars. In this paper we look at arguments about the contagiousness of conflict, instability and violence at the level. We also look at the actions of players (sometimes themselves located outside the affected region) that have contributed to the spread of instability, and to policies that have arguably contributed to its containment. …" @default.
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• W2566028022 date "2016-03-22" @default.
• W2566028022 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2566028022 title "The Contagiousness of Regional Conflict: A Middle East Case Study" @default.
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