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- W2566159678 abstract "Purpose: Mosquitoes serve as vectors for many infectious diseases, of which a growing concern is dengue in Southeast Asia. Control of vector-borne diseases is a substantial public cost and personal mosquito control imposes a burden on many individual households. Average annual national dengue incidence in Thailand from 2000-2011 was 115 cases per 100,000 people, while on the island of Koh Chang in the Trat province of Thailand the annual incidence was on average 196 cases per 100,000 people over a similar time period. Movement from mainland Thailand and from nearby Cambodia may be driving the dengue dynamics at this local scale. As a case study of a location with high tourism and seasonal movement, this work aims to estimate the ranges of relevant parameters that could impact local disease transmission in order to understand disease dynamics influenced by human movement. Methods & Materials: This study investigates non-seasonal and seasonal human movement through networks of human and mosquito populations in 6 residential communities in Koh Chang. Using 2-patch and 3-patch metapopulation models, we estimate the range of secondary cases, the basic reproductive ratio R0, in response to two parameters: the rate of movement between Koh Chang and Cambodia and the rate of infection in Cambodia. Results: We present results from multi-patch metapopulation models that show how movement at local and regional scales may impact R0. We graph potential dengue cases resulting from ranges of parameters estimating human movement and dengue incidence to suggest what may lead to a local R0 ≥ 1 in Koh Chang. Conclusion: The aim of this work is to model dynamics in disease risk and dispersal involving human movement, human disease cases, and mosquitoes in a case study of Koh Chang, Thailand. An understanding of human movement at the local and regional scale may be helpful for disease management and preparation." @default.
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- W2566159678 date "2016-12-01" @default.
- W2566159678 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2566159678 title "Dengue transmission through human movement in regular and seasonal patterns on Koh Chang island in Thailand" @default.
- W2566159678 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.239" @default.
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