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- W257053555 abstract "Abstract : In the early phases of the materiel acquisition process, Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) may be the only source for data on a conceptual weapon system. In these early phases, the Early Comparability Analysis (ECA) methodology provides a tool for identifying the Manpower, Personnel, and Training (MPT) resource intensive tasks (e.g., the high drivers) on currently fielded systems that the conceptual system will replace. Various documents related to Manpower and Personnel Integration (MANPRINT) and the Concept Formulation Process (CFP) discuss risk and uncertainty. By expanding these concepts and using some theoretical considerations, the ECA method can be extended to provide a probabilistic estimate of the uncertainty of the SMEs opinion and the risk of the proposed system. The process which determines the risk and uncertainty probabilities can then be worked backward to determine the high drivers as well as the source for risk and uncertainty. Hypothetical data from a very small sample of SMEs is used to illustrate the risk/uncertainty process. The method incorporates a consideration for importance values or weights in the determination of risk/uncertainty values probabilities." @default.
- W257053555 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W257053555 creator A5041001571 @default.
- W257053555 date "1990-01-31" @default.
- W257053555 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W257053555 title "Technical Notes on Risk and Uncertainty in Early Comparability Analysis." @default.
- W257053555 doi "https://doi.org/10.21236/ada239011" @default.
- W257053555 hasPublicationYear "1990" @default.
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