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• W2575446012 abstract "This chapter considers models of urban systems as virtual laboratories to explore possible trajectories that a ‘real’ geographical system could have taken instead of the evolution path that is observed historically. It therefore builds on the concept of historical contingency, and regards simulation modelling as an opportunity to explore historical contingency in silico. This approach is illustrated by an experiment performed on a model of systems of cities applied to the urbanization of the (Former) Soviet Union, MARIUS, using a new algorithm seeking to maximize diversity in a model’s outcomes. The discovery of possible trajectories of the target system through the model provides insight into the singularity of the realized trajectory, and can be used for prediction to define a range of possible outcomes resulting from a simulation of the model, not based on predefined scenarios but on the maximum diversity allowed by the model within reasonable parameter bounds." @default.
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• W2575446012 date "2017-01-01" @default.
• W2575446012 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2575446012 title "Using Models to Explore Possible Futures (Contingency and Complexity)" @default.
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• W2575446012 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46497-8_5" @default.
• W2575446012 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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