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• W2580653942 abstract "ABSTRACTAim Climate change and the ability of alien populations to realize different cli-matic niches compared to native populations pose challenges for pre-emptinginvasion risk. These issues are not addressed in Weed Risk Assessments(WRAs), which have been developed to identify potentially invasive species andprevent their importation. Chrysanthemoides monilifera, native to SouthernAfrica, has two subspecies invasive in Australia, which has led to an importa-tion ban on all six subspecies. We assess whether the two invasive subspeciesoccupy different realized climatic niches, compared with native populations,and the climatic suitability of Australia for all subspecies under current andfuture climate scenarios.Location Southern Africa and AustraliaMethods Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations of two inva-sive subspecies (Bitou Bush and Boneseed) were compared using niche identitytests. The distribution of climatically suitable habitat within Australia for allsubspecies was modelled using MaxEnt, under current and future climate sce-narios. For invasive subspecies, models were calibrated using (1) native or (2)alien range data.Results Realized climatic niches of native and alien populations are not identi-cal, with some alien populations of Boneseed occupying climatic niches absentfrom Southern Africa. As such, MaxEnt models for Boneseed based on nativerange data failed to classify one-third of Australian populations as inhabitingsuitable climate.Main Conclusions We validate the Australian decision to ban all subspecies byshowing that climatically suitable habitat in Australia for non-introduced sub-species exceeds that of introduced subspecies, under current and future cli-mates. Niche shifts and climate change alter estimates of invasion risks, andthis may reduce efficacy of current WRAs. We call for greater dialogue to iden-tify and standardize a comprehensive system for incorporating these challengingissues into WRA systems to ensure that they remain effective in reducing theweed risk into the future.KeywordsChrysanthemoides monilifera, climate change, climatic niche, invasive species,MaxEnt, species distribution models, Weed Risk Assessment." @default.
• W2580653942 created "2017-02-03" @default.
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• W2580653942 date "2014-01-01" @default.
• W2580653942 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2580653942 title "RESEARCH How can knowledge of the climate niche inform the weed risk assessment process? A case study of Chrysanthemoides monilifera in" @default.
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• W2580653942 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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