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• W258526347 abstract "A casual observer viewing the interaction of bank lending, credit quality, and the business cycle over the past 15 years may appropriately ask, Why don't they ever learn? Indeed, as bankers, looking back over that period with the obvious advantage of 20-20 hindsight, a fair and highly relevant question is, why couldn't the industry recognize the various lending excesses and thus mitigate the resulting asset quality problems and loan losses? Some might respond that perhaps the respective circumstances and eventual losses associated with loans to less-developed countries, agricultural land loans, energy loans, leveraged buy-out loans, and commercial real estate loans were isolated, random, and unforseeable events. On the contrary, while these varying periods of lending excesses were masked in different costumes, the basic process, the underlying motivation, and perhaps even economic necessity followed a predictable procedure. At least one banker--John G. Medlin, Jr., chairman of Wachovia Corp.--believes that the predictable swing in the lending pendulum is again evident in 1994. In a recent New York speech the stated, seeds of future problems are being sown in the liberal lending going on today... Another [downturn] probably will come within the next two or three years. While there is a basic book of banking business that is continuous, perpetual, and generally immune to economic conditions, a bank's ability to annually expand assets and earnings must be managed within the constraints of the business cycle. In recent years, the pressure to procedure exemplary earnings performance has been magnified by the ongoing necessity for industry consolidation. A substantial stock-price multiple relative to book value or to current earnings may enable a bank to successfully pursue an acquisition strategy. Conversely, if independence is the desired goal, rising earnings and appreciating stock value may provide stockholders with the evidence that long-term equity value can more likely be obtained by remaining independent. The process of achieving successive earnings gains and being rewarded by stock investors has been made increase in the number and intensity of commercial bank competitors. The scope of customer borrowing and savings alternatives is so vast and diverse that a reasonable financial industry definition becomes almost impossible. Although somewhat oversimplified, it's fair to say that bank opportunities to regularly improve earnings across the business cycle may generally be condensed into five basic areas: 1. Expanded margins 2. Cutting costs and enhancing efficiency 3. Reduced loan-loss provisions 4. Enhancing non-interest income 5. Increased volume Within the business and interest rate cycle, opportunities to achieve ongoing earnings progress in each of those categories are not automatic. Differing circumstances almost always impose restrictions on one or more of the sources of earnings. For example, in the 1990-1993 period, opportunities for new commercial lending volume were limited. Commercial loans outstanding at all commercial banks as of the fourth quarter of 1993, were $539 billion--essentially unchanged from the prior year, but noticeably below the $616 billion outstanding in the fourth quarter of 1990, according to the FDIC. Nevertheless, rapidly declining interest rates on deposit products, combined with mortgage refinancing opportunities, enabled commercial banks to widen their annual net interest margins to 4.40% in 1993 and 4.51% in 1992, which were significantly above 1990's 3. …" @default.
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• W258526347 date "1994-06-01" @default.
• W258526347 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W258526347 title "What's Behind Those Lending Excesses?" @default.
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