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- W2595962505 abstract "IntroductionThe next elections to the European Parliament will take place in May 2014, less than a few months away. For EU citizens, this will be a unique opportunity to vote and express their views on key decisions that affect the lives of hundreds of millions across the continent. Perhaps the most important chance for raising the profile of this election for citizens and media could come from the rival candidates for EU Commission President. Moreover, these candidates are openly supported by competing European political parties. Thus, is an expectation that by determining the balance of power in the future Parliament, EU citizens will have a real and concrete role in deciding who will lead the EU Commission.This paper provides an overview of the upcoming 2014 European elections with a focus on some of the relevant features, issues and trends that are likely to influence the electoral performance of the Party of European Socialists (PES). First, we study past European elections to identify the member states with strategic importance in the outcome of the upcoming elections. We then discuss three key issues and trends important for the entire EU and particularly in our selection of member states. We begin with the Europeanisation of the 2014 election. Second is how strong is the populist challenge and how to deal with it. Last but not least is the question whether the Left's electoral base has been shrinking and how to respond to this phenomenon1.European elections cycles: looking back to look forwardThe period of more than three decades since introduction of direct elections to the European Parliament saw profound political changes. The powers of the Parliament increased over time. In part, it was a consequence of successive treaty changes, but also of the Parliament asserting itself by claiming and exercising more power. Through the enlargement process, the number of states taking part in European elections increased from nine in 1979 elections to 28 in 2014. During this interval, the strength of the socialist group in the European Parliament followed an interesting pattern. For the first four election cycles, it was the single largest group, with an ever increasing share of total MEPs, followed by a gradual decline in the successive three election cycles.Looking forward towards the 2014 elections, an analysis of the past election cycles becomes highly relevant. To achieve a better understanding of the reasons behind the gains and losses of MEP seats across member states, one practical approach entails the use of regional clusters. The expected result is to identify those member states in which the electoral outcome holds a critical importance over the balance of power in the European Parliament.Explaining the outcome of European electionsAnalysis of past European election cycles led to the development of two explanatory models. Taken together, the second-order and Europe matters models provide a more nuanced base for assessing the 2014 elections.The second-order model follows a classical approach based on identifying the laws governing a social phenomenon. After the first EP election in 1979, Reif and Schmitt put forward three propositions on the difference between European and national elections: (1) turnout will be lower in European elections than in general elections; (2) parties in Government at national level will suffer losses in European elections; (3) larger parties will do worse and smaller parties will do better in European elections. Since parliamentary systems dominate in Europe, elections for the national parliament are regarded as first-order elections. Other elections - such as local, regional or state elections in federal states, and for the non-executive head of state - fall into the second-order category, called so because for most voters there is less at stake as compared to first-order elections(Reif and Schmitt, 1980, p. 8). For Reif and Schmidt, this does not mean that first and second-order elections are two separated phenomenon, but rather that key issues and trends from the first order political arena influence both electorate and parties in second-order elections. …" @default.
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- W2595962505 date "2014-04-01" @default.
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- W2595962505 title "Towards a New European Polity? Social Democrats and the 2014 Ep Elections" @default.
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