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- W2597820007 abstract "The rise of radical right parties is a Europe-wide phenomenon. While many studies describe the individual or regional characteristics associated with high propensity to vote for the far-right, we know little about the causal impact of economic shocks on electoral support for the far-right. Over the period 1995-2012, we examine the impact of trade-shocks, measured as exposure to low-wage country import competition, on the local vote share of the National Front, the French main far-right party, during presidential elections. We use small communities (cantons) as units of observations and include province (departement) fixed effects, so that the identifying variation comes from within-province change in imports exposure over time. We find evidence of a small but significantly positive impact of import competition exposure on votes for the far-right: a one standard-deviation increase in imports-per-worker causes the change in the far-right share to increase by 7 percent of a standard deviation. Further results suggest that this effect has been increasing over the time period considered. We conduct a simple sensitivity test supporting the notion that: (i) omitting local share of immigrants is likely to bias our estimate downward, and that (ii) this bias is likely to negligible." @default.
- W2597820007 created "2017-04-07" @default.
- W2597820007 creator A5023801387 @default.
- W2597820007 date "2017-01-01" @default.
- W2597820007 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
- W2597820007 title "Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections" @default.
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- W2597820007 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2942173" @default.
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