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- W2600351621 abstract "The fifth chapter of the book is comprised of the case analysis of Turkey’s Syria policy. The goal is to provide empirical evidence for the effects of highly positive performance perception in past decisions on subsequent risk-taking behavior. Specifically, I examine the causes behind and the consequences of Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking in the course of uprising in Syria. The chapter begins with a brief historical background of the case that is highly relevant for building the case along the lines of the model of overconfidence. The analyses then proceed to show how sense of success and certainty achieved in the first wave of uprising in the Arab world convinced Turkish policy makers to overestimate benefits associated with playing an active role in Syrian crisis to steer the course of events desirable to Turkish interests. An elaborate discussion of the manifestations of overconfidence in Turkish policy to cause regime change in Syria is followed by identification of factors that misled Turkish decision makers to overestimate the capacity of Turkey and underestimate many factors that ascertained the survival of the regime." @default.
- W2600351621 created "2017-04-07" @default.
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- W2600351621 date "2017-01-01" @default.
- W2600351621 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2600351621 title "The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure" @default.
- W2600351621 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52605-8_4" @default.
- W2600351621 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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