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• W2600585440 abstract "I'm not a fan of hyperbole, but it would be churlish to say the adoption of the Paris Agreement was anything other than a globally, historic moment, wrote respected BBC environment correspondent Matt McGrath, on December 12, 2015.1 McGrath's statement was far from being the only one: quite the contrary, the results of the Paris Conference of Parties (COP 21) fostered a satisfaction bordering on excitement that was almost universal and univocal - with just a few, albeit notable individuals, dissenting from the general feeling of relief and satisfaction.The Paris Agreement was adopted by 195 countries and became the first-ever universal, legally binding climate deal. The key elements of the agreement can be found, inter alia, on the European Commission's website on climate action2. An absolutely crucial part of the agreement is the declared goal to limit the increase in the average global temperature to below 2°C, preferably to just 1.5°C. This goal is in line with the recommendations made by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change;3 however, it is questionable whether it is still physically possible. In addition to this key question, there is doubt as to whether the wording of the agreement sufficiently operationalizes the path towards the stated goal.The Paris Agreement is without doubt the diplomatic triumph of the European Union and in particular French diplomacy and Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister and chair of the Paris conference. The Paris Agreement is the highest common denominator on which the global polity could agree in 2015; however, this denominator may prove to be too low to achieve aspirations. Since the first United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference of Parties (COP) in Berlin in 1995, politicians and experts have met 21 times on an annual basis4 and agreed a variety of documents and approaches to be taken to tackle advancing climate change, most notably that on the Kyoto Protocol.5 Despite this diplomatic effort, the Earth's climate system took no notice and there has been no visible change in the dynamics of CO2 emissions and climate change. Fifteen of the sixteen warmest years since systematic record-keeping began have been recorded since 2001 - the only exception is 1998 (Figure 1). No noticeable slowdown in human CO2 emissions has been recorded over the past three decades (Figure2).tiationsIn the meantime the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has grown from around 360 ppm in 1995 - when COP1 was held - to its current level of over 400 parts per million: such a concentration has not been seen in the whole history of the human species. Similar concentrations of atmospheric CO2 were present on Earth in the Pliocene Epoch, when the average global temperature was 3 to 4°C higher than today and sea levels were 5 to 40 meters above recent levels.6 The year 2014 was the warmest year on record - but only till 2015, when it was surpassed by a large margin. Data published by American NASA and NOAA show that the average global temperature in 2015 was 0.13°C higher than in the previous record warm year of 2014. This is the largest margin by which the previous temperature record has been broken since global instrumental measurements were first taken.7 To put the figures in context, 2015 was 0.75°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average or, using the time framework used in the Paris Agreement, 2015 was the first year when the average global temperature surpassed the global pre-industrial temperature by 1°C.Can we really stop temperature growth?Already in December 2015 the authoritative British Met Office published a forecast suggesting that the year 2016 could be 1.1°C above preindustrial levels or 0.84°C above the 1961-1990 average global temperature. Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office commentedIn 2014 we had 0.6 which was nominally a record, 2015 so far we've had 0.7 which is also nominally a record, and next year we are talking about 0.8 - so you can see that very rapid rise over three years and by the end of 2016 we may be looking at three record years in a row. …" @default.
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• W2600585440 date "2015-10-01" @default.
• W2600585440 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2600585440 title "Paris Climate Change Agreement: A Milestone or a Fake?" @default.
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