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• W2602466957 abstract "The potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, and the associated large‐scale environmental conditions, for Vietnam and the South China Sea, posed by climate change, are examined using a high‐resolution regional climate model system, PRECIS 2.1, to downscale the Met Office Hadley Centre CMIP5 model, HadGEM2‐ES, to a resolution of 25 km (PRECIS_Had2). The ERA‐Interim reanalysis is also downscaled to the same resolution (PRECIS_ERAI) for comparison. An objective algorithm is used to identify and track the TCs. The PRECIS_Had2 is evaluated for the period of 1990–2005 by comparing with the PRECIS_ERAI and the observed best‐track data of TCs. Compared to PRECIS_ERAI, PRECIS_Had2 represents the TC‐associated large‐scale environments reasonably well but shows stronger vertical wind shear over the South China Sea and during the summer southwesterly monsoon. For TCs, PRECIS_Had2 is capable of capturing the TC distribution but shows a notable underestimation of very intense TCs. The analysis of the influence of global warming on the TC activity reveals that PRECIS_Had2 simulates a pronounced seasonal shift of TC activity in a warmer climate for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with an increase in TC activity during winter related to the more favourable large‐scale conditions, while a decrease in TCs associated with less favourable large‐scale conditions is projected in summer." @default.
• W2602466957 created "2017-04-07" @default.
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• W2602466957 date "2017-04-01" @default.
• W2602466957 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W2602466957 title "Projections of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam under climate change: downscaled HadGEM2‐ES using PRECIS 2.1" @default.
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• W2602466957 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3046" @default.
• W2602466957 hasPublicationYear "2017" @default.
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