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- W2605357294 abstract "Great powers have incentives to demonstrate resolve to opponents in interstate crises, but their considerable military power also provokes fears of exploitation in outsiders, creating a competing incentive to signal restraint. I explore this dilemma in a model of crisis bargaining in which a third party can reward one belligerent’s restraint by imposing diplomatic costs on the other if the crisis escalates to war, which has two effects on the probability of war. First, winning outside support can impose sufficient costs on one’s opponent to discourage it from risking war by reducing the role of uncertainty. Second, the promise of imposing diplomatic costs on an opponent may encourage states to hide their resolve, refusing to reveal private information and maintaining a risk of war even when credible signaling is possible. Thus, while strategic restraint can reassure fearful observers, its exercise can also lead to otherwise avoidable wars." @default.
- W2605357294 created "2017-04-14" @default.
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- W2605357294 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2605357294 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2605357294 title "Great Powers and Third-Party Diplomacy: The Logic of Signaling to Multiple Audiences ⁄" @default.
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