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- W2616463663 abstract "An ensemble of 15 EURO-CORDEX model runs was used toinvestigate the changes in the frequency of severe thunderstormphenomena (large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes) overEurope. For each time frame and grid point, a probability ofoccurrence was calculated based on the degree of instability,vertical wind shear and the occurrence of precipitation. Weshow that the local annual probabilities of occurrence are verydifferent for the three investigated phenomena. Future changeswere addressed by comparing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulationsto historical (control) runs. Historical runs span the1971–2000 period, while the future studied periods are2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The frequencies of all studiedphenomena are forecast to increase in the future due to theclimate change, especially across south-central Europe. In theRCP8.5 scenario and the 2071–2100 period significant increasesare forecast across large parts of Europe. In this case, thefrequency of the phenomena increases by 20-70%. Regionaldifferences in the increase are discussed and further analysedby considering the individual ingredients of severethunderstorms. We show that instability is forecast to increaseacross all of Europe due to the increase in the absolutemoisture content in the lower troposphere. On the other hand,no significant changes in the degree of vertical wind shear areforecast. For some regions in Europe (e.g. Iberian peninsula),drying of the atmosphere may result in the reduced potentialfor thunderstorm formation." @default.
- W2616463663 created "2017-05-26" @default.
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- W2616463663 date "2016-09-13" @default.
- W2616463663 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
- W2616463663 title "Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe" @default.
- W2616463663 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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