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• W2620272052 abstract "Despite the inadequacies frequently attributed to retrospective information on birth and death rates this detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961-62 for a sample of 4200 women in central East Pakistan yields reasonable estimates of vital rates for the preceding decade. Age specific marital birth rates declined by about 1/5 during the 1950s nonetheless birth rates in central East Pakistan remain high. There is reason to anticipate that they declined further during the 1960s especially among older women. The average total number of children born to women over age 34 is about 6 in this group; yet due to the exceptionally high death rates the median number of children alive is about 3. By 1962 3/4 of the women age 30 or over had 3 living offspring and continued high fertility among these older women would lead them to have more living children than previous generations. This impending excess fertility should motivate these older women to reduce their birth rates even further and increase demands in this population for improved means of birth control. Estimating a simplified model of fertility determination from the individual data from this sample survey evidence is presented for the postpartum sterility (amenorrhea) effect of a birth in the previous year reducing the likelihood that a married woman bears a child in the current year. A directrelationship is also confirmed between the death of a child and the subsequent probability of the birth of another child. The magnitude of this reproductive response to the recent loss of a child implies a 50% replacement on the average for mothers 15-19 and 30-39 over a 5-year adjustment period and a smaller 30% replacement response for those 20-29. The reproductive response of a mother to her childs death is more pronounced if she loses a boy than a girl but the difference is less than cultural factors had led us to expect. A better understanding of the behavioral and biological determinants of reproductive behavior isneeded to improve policy to cope with predicted trends in fertility and to influence these crucial trends. Longitudinal data for families are promising sources of information for policy-oriented research in the population field; these data can be collected by prospective panel surveysor by retrospective inquiries. The greater cost and difficulty associated with the collection of data prospectively are usually justified by the alleged unreliability of the alternative retrospective sources. It may be appropriate to reappraise this rationale. It is not certain why the apparent quality of the retrospective histories collected in the Pakistan survey and analyzed in this study is clearly superior to those commonly cited. However it is belived that the improved sampling methodology careful training and supervision of interviewers and repeated checks and reinterview techniques to verify the completeness and consistency of pregnancy rosters and other historical data can contribute to a substantial reduction of recall error in this and future surveys. It is concluded that more resources could be productively used to collect and analyzeretrospective survey information. Though many past surveys have routinely collected but not analyzed pregnancy rosters new surveys are needed to emphasize retrospective data on more than demographic events; data are needed on family economic status child schooling and work experience and job opportunities and employment experience of women both inside and outside the home. Such characteristics of the family as these have been useful in predicting reproductive patterns among indiviudals and communities and should be considered increasingly in policy-oriented research as possible causes for variation in desired family size. These new combined sources of demographic and economic longitudinal data on representative samples of families provide an essential empirical foundation to test refine and add to the limited understanding of the structural dynamics linking reproductive behavior with demographic and economic development in the 3rd world. (authors modified)" @default.
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• W2620272052 title "Analysis of Demographic Change in East Pakistan: A Study of Retrospective Survey Data" @default.
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