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• W2625819368 abstract "Base-R ate N eglect in Pigeons: Im plications for M em ory M echanism s Thom as R. Zentall (zentall@ pop.uky.edu) Tricia S. Clem ent (tcharb1@ pop.uky.edu) D epartm ent of Psychology, U niversity of K entucky Lexington, K Y 40506 U SA A bstract In delayed m atching-to-sam ple, there is an initial (or sam ple) stim ulus and tw o test (or com parison) stim uli. W hen pigeons are trained to m atch,they presum ably choose betw een the tw o com parison stim uli according to their ability to rem em ber the sam ple. W hen the sam ple cannot be rem em bered, com parison choice should depend on the history of reinforcem ent associated w ith each ofthecom parison stim uli (i.e., the com parison base rates). In the present research, pigeons acquired tw o m atching tasksin w hich sam ples S1 and S2 w ere each associated w ith one of tw o com parisonsC1and C2(equalexperiencew ith both trial types),and sam ples S1 and S3 w ere each associated w ith one oftw o othercom parisons C3 and C 4 (equal experience w ith both trial types). A s the retention interval increased, the pigeons show ed a bias to choose the com parison (C 1 or C 3) associated w ith the m ore frequently occurring sam ple (S1). Thus, pigeons are sensitive, not just to the probability of reinforcem ent associated w ith the each of the com parison stim uli (i.e., the base rates) w hich w ere equal, but also to the(irrelevant)likelihoodthateach of the sam ples w as presented (i.e., base-rate neglect). Introduction H um ansare know n to underestim atetheeffect of base rates associated w ith probability of being correct (K ahnem an & Tversky 1972).In a classic problem proposed by Tversky and K anem an (1980,p.62),participants are told that 85% of thetaxis in a city are green w hileonly 15% are blue(thebase rates).They are also told thata w itness to a hit-and-run accident involving a taxi identified the taxi as blue. Furtherm ore,they are told that under sim ilar conditions w itnesses correctly identify the colorofa taxi80% ofthe tim e.W hen participants are then asked, “W hat is the probability that the taxi involved in the accident w as actually blue?” m ost ofthem say thatitisvery likely thatthe taxi is blue. In m aking this judgem ent theparticipantsfailto considersufficiently thebase-rateprobabilities. W hen base rate is considered,the conditionalprobability ofcorrectly identifying abluetaxi is p(blue|judgem ent correct) = p(blue) x p(correct) = .15 x .80 = .12, w hereas the probability of saying it w as blue w hen it actually w as green is p(green|judgem ent incorrect) = p(green) x p(incorrect) = .85 x .20 = .17. This m eans that the probability of being correct underthese conditions is only .12/(.12 + .17)= .41,orless than 50% . Thus, hum ans often failto considersufficiently the probability of being correctin the absence ofthe eye- w itness inform ation. A lthough there are certain conditions under w hich hum ans can be induced to perform m ore accurately (e.g., G igerenzer & H offrage, 1995), base-rate neglectislikely responsible form anyexaggeratedfearssuch as air travel, w alking the streets of N ew Y ork C ity, and having one’s children killed at school by a fellow student. A n analogous situation can be designed for an anim al using a m atching-to-sam ple task.M atching-to-sam ple is a conditionaldiscrim ination in w hich the identity oftheinitial or sam ple stim ulus indicates w hich oftw o (or m ore) test or com parison stim uli is correct(Skinner,1950). A ccording to H artland Fantino (1996),com parison choice for pigeons should depend on tw o factors, the relative probabilities of reinforcem ent associated w ith the com parisons (i.e., the baserates)in theabsence ofthesam ple,and theconditional probability of each com parison being correct given presentation ofone ofthe sam ples (i.e.,the actualsam ple event or the evidence, given the base rates). In the case of m atching-to-sam ple, the probability of reinforcem ent given the sam ple is typically 1.0.This ensures thatthe task has been adequately acquired and that the contingencies have been adequately experienced. B iases can be introduced by m anipulating the ratio of sam ples and the probability of reinforcem ent for choices of the m atching com parison (see G oodie & Fantino,1995,forsim ilarfindings w ith hum ans, but see also G oodie & Fantino, 1996, for exceptions). C ontrol by the com parisons alone can be increased by degrading thesam plesatthetim eofcom parison choice (i.e., by increasing the probability of poor m em ory, or in thetaxi exam ple, of an identification error). O new ay to degrade the sam ples is by introducing adelay betw een the offset of the sam ple and the onsetofthe com parisons.A ssum ing that the com parison stim uli are correct equally often overtrials, and thatthe probability ofreinforcem entis the sam e for a correctresponseto each com parison,onew ould expectthat w ith increasing delay, the slopes of the pigeons’retention functions w ould be quite sim ilar (see G rant, 1991; W hite &" @default.
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• W2625819368 title "Base-Rate Neglect in Pigeons: Implications for Memory Mechanisms" @default.
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