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- W26669035 abstract "Load forecast under uncertainty requires an accurate model of the uncertainty around its - the variables that impact load future growth. Most long-term forecast models use economic growth as the main driver for future load behavior. Although this assumption may be valid for some markets, it does not hold for many regions, specially developing countries, where GDP is associated to particular economic activities - not always associated to heavy load consumption. A reliable forecast must therefore identify the correct drivers (not necessarily the GDP), model associated uncertainty and consequent impact on load dynamics. This paper presents a the application of a novel model for the load forecast under uncertainty based on this concept. A case study with the Brazilian system illustrates the diagnosis (drivers search), uncertainty map (around the explaining variables) and construction of the future load under uncertainty. Finally, we apply this distribution to the market clearance price forecast, calculating the associated probability distribution." @default.
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- W26669035 date "2011-02-23" @default.
- W26669035 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W26669035 title "Load forecast under uncertainty: an innovative approach beyond GDP growth" @default.
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