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- W2692652169 abstract "A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification." @default.
- W2692652169 created "2017-06-30" @default.
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- W2692652169 date "2017-06-01" @default.
- W2692652169 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W2692652169 title "On the Predictability of Growth" @default.
- W2692652169 doi "https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8117" @default.
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